FX Daily Update

Division within OPEC

Optimism has given way to doubt in Vienna where OPEC members were meeting to craft an output reduction plan. The details of Iraq and Iran’s participation, as the cartel’s second and third largest producers, remain points of contention and discussions to that effect were pushed back to November 30. However, according to officials present at the meeting, this does not jeopardize the possibility of reaching an agreement. In short, within the cartel, it appears that there is a genuine drive to control supply, which led crude oil prices to close higher yesterday.

Today, a number of economic indicators are on deck in the United States. We’ll be keeping an eye on Durable Goods Orders, the Markit Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales. The minutes of the most recent Federal Open Markets Committee meeting will also be released early this afternoon. Markets are now certain (100% probability) that the U.S. key rate will be raised on December 14. Disappointing economic data could potentially trigger a market reaction.

Note that U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving holiday.

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